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Ecological Monographs

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Ecological Monographs's content profile, based on 21 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Climate at seed origin drives germination and seedling trait responses to warming in sessile and pubescent oaks

Carme, M.; Vicente, E.; Benito Garzon, M.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734244 medRxiv
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Tree early life stages are particularly sensitive to warming, yet their responses remain poorly understood despite their importance for forest regeneration. Here, we investigated how warming affects early-life traits in two widespread European white oaks: Quercus pubescens and Q. petraea. We conducted a common garden experiment using 17 populations exposed to three temperature regimes. We measured 19 traits encompassing germination, phenology, and functional and fitness-related traits and performed individual trait mixed-effects models based on temperature transfer distance and the climate of the population. We found that population climate was the primary driver of early stages traits responses to warming, with climatic drivers varying strongly among traits and species. Particularly in Q. pubescens, warmer and drier populations showed lower fitness (germination and survival percentages, total biomass) that declined further under warming, consistent with a cost of drought avoidance strategies under continuously wet conditions; in Q. petraea, continental populations outperformed others at low temperature transfer distance but suffered the steepest fitness declines under further warming, suggesting a narrow thermal optimum shaped by cold adaptation. Warming generally advanced germination and leaf emergence, increased leaf pigment concentrations and fine-root allocation, reduced specific leaf area. Extreme warming reduced survival, growth and germination. Nevertheless, moderate warming (+0 to +5{degrees}C) was rarely detrimental and sometimes beneficial. Our results demonstrate that population climatic origin is a key determinant of regeneration responses to warming, highlighting the need to consider within-species adaptive variation to understand forest regeneration potential under climate change.

2
Widespread evidence for plasticity and recent evolution of plasticity in the breeding phenology of Finnish birds

Hallfors, M. H.; Lehikoinen, A.; Phillimore, A. B.

2026-06-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.05.730291 medRxiv
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Phenological shifts under climate change often arise through phenotypic plasticity and, where this is insufficient to track shifts in optimum timing, genetic adaptation may also play a role. Understanding the contributions of these two processes is critical for predicting species persistence in a changing climate. While many species show phenological plasticity, we know surprisingly little about the contributions that genetic adaptation of the plasticity reaction norm elevation (timing in the mean environment) and slope (shift in timing as a response to temperature) make to phenological shifts. With the aim of disentangling plasticity from adaptation in temperature-phenology reaction norms, we applied a statistical approach to long-term first egg-laying data from 44 Finnish bird species represented by 69 populations spanning six decades. Applying phylogenetic meta-analysis to parameter estimates obtained from the individual time series, we estimated average plasticity and adaptation effect sizes and tested whether migratory strategy, generation length, and mean laying-date explained among-species variation. Egg-laying phenology was strongly plastic, advancing by 2.5 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1}. We found no evidence for a steeper reaction norm between 5-year periods versus within them, consistent with no adaptation of the reaction norm elevation. However, we detected a significant steepening of slopes over time (-0.04 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} year{square}{superscript 1}), consistent with plasticity across the whole study area increasing from -2.5 to -5.1 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} and in the northernmost area (-0.07 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} year{square}{superscript 1}) from -2 to -6.5 days {degrees}C{square}{superscript 1} over the 64-year study period. Trait analyses revealed no significant effect of migratory strategy, generation length, nor mean phenology on adaptation. We show that plasticity enables substantial short-term tracking of warming accompanied by noteworthy evidence consistent with widespread evolution of. Our approach demonstrates how observational data can help reveal evolutionary signals, offering a tool for improved understanding of the processes that underpin phenological responses.

3
Sensitivity of tree species demography to climate and competition across their range

Vieira, W.; MacDonald, A.; Gravel, D.

2026-05-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.03.722548 medRxiv
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Theory predicts that demographic performance should peak at the core of species ranges and decrease toward their limits. Yet, empirical correlations between population growth rate and species distribution remain weak for most tree species. Part of the problem may arise from the difficulty of integrating multiple demographic processes across the complex life cycle of a forest, and from the significant variability among individuals and locations. It remains unclear if the mismatch between performance and distribution arises from modelling limitations or if climate is simply a poor predictor of species performance across distributions. Here, rather than asking whether demographic performance correlates with species distributions, we ask how climate and competition jointly shape population growth rate for 31 tree species across eastern North America. By combining flexible nonlinear hierarchical models for growth, survival, and recruitment with explicit uncertainty propagation, we use Integral Projection Models to address key gaps in previous studies. Perturbation analyses revealed that population growth rate was consistently more sensitive to mean annual temperature than to conspecific or heterospecific competition across all species. We further examined how sensitivities to climate and competition varied across species thermal ranges. The dominance of climate over competition increased toward both cold and hot range limits, while sensitivity to competition generally declined from cold to hot limits. Notably, these patterns emerged along the continental thermal gradient shared across species rather than within each species individual range, suggesting that range-edge demographic responses may arise as a community-level phenomenon. Across species, the largest source of variability remained the local plot conditions captured by random effects, likely reflecting differences in soil conditions, drainage, and disturbance history. Together, these results may provide a mechanistic pathway underlying the performance declines predicted by range-limit theories, and offer a basis for understanding how forest populations and communities may reorganize in response to ongoing climate change and shifting disturbance regimes.

4
The flaws of fitness functions in changing environments

von Schmalensee, L.; Rueffler, C.; Lancaster, L.; Bocedi, G.; Berger, D.

2026-04-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.27.720981 medRxiv
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When predicting species responses to changing environments, one can use mathematical functions that describe how individual fitness components depend on the environment, or a single "composite" function that directly links fitness to the environmental state. The former approach is a cornerstone of process-based modelling, but the latter remains standard for developing fundamental theory and making ecological predictions. Yet, fitness is not a single instantaneous trait, but an integrated outcome of multiple underlying processes accruing throughout an organisms life. We show that by ignoring the distinct environmental dependence of the underlying processes, predictions from composite fitness functions become inherently flawed in variable environments. We explore the magnitude of this error by leveraging empirical thermal reaction norms for four important life-history processes in an insect pest, the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus. We parameterize two fitness functions: one explicitly modelling the temperature-dependence of the four life-history traits independently (the "ground truth") and one composite function, which treats fitness as a single, instantaneous outcome of the environment. By combining these two functions with hourly temperature data, we projected demographic responses under different warming scenarios across 300 sites over three beetle population origins (California, USA; Yemen; Brazil). We show that the composite function over- or underestimates fitness depending on subtle climatic differences and whether fitness is assumed to accumulate additively or multiplicatively, highlighting the problems of applying composite fitness functions to variable conditions. We conclude that explicitly modeling trait-specific processes will become increasingly important for accurate eco-evolutionary forecasting under future environmental change.

5
Eco-evolutionary dynamics are shaped by competition in experimental range expansions

Urquhart, C. A.; Usui, T.; Angert, A. L.; Williams, J. L.

2026-06-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.01.729372 medRxiv
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Most theory and empirical research on range expansion assumes populations spread into empty landscapes with abundant resources, however expanding populations are likely to compete with residents. In mathematical models, interspecific competition can lead to pushed wave dynamics, where expansions are driven mainly by individuals dispersing from the core, leading to steeper wavefronts and increased genetic diversity at the edge. These predictions are yet to be tested empirically, and the role of interspecific competition in mediating evolution during range expansion is unclear. We used an experimental system with two duckweed species to ask if interspecific competition leads to pushed-like dynamics and to assess how competition alters evolution during range expansion. We found that competition with a resident reduced expansion speed and absolute variance among replicate expansions, suggesting competition makes expansion speed more predictable. Interspecific competition also changed the relative frequencies of genotypes at the leading edge. While competition was associated with some features of pushed waves, genotype diversity did not vary between treatments. Our results demonstrate that demographic and evolutionary patterns associated with pushed waves may not be universal, and that incorporating selective pressures into future research on eco-evolutionary dynamics of range expansion is key to understanding spreading populations in nature.

6
Trait-dependent species responses weaken the effects of response diversity on community stability

Heinrichs, A. L.; Polazzo, F.; Kunze, C.; Ghedini, G.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734835 medRxiv
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The diversity of species responses to environmental change (response diversity) is a key mechanism of ecological stability. However, anticipating where strong or weak stabilizing responses emerge is challenging because species responses can depend on the local community and the specific stability metric. Whether species traits can consistently inform on how species respond to disturbances, enabling less context-dependent predictions, remains an open question. To address this gap, we use microcosm experiments on marine phytoplankton to test how response diversity supports multiple aspects of community stability under pulse temperature changes, testing both an increase (heatwave) and a decrease in temperature (coldspell). We then map species traits to their responses in a community to identify which traits modulate and predict species' sensitivities. Fundamental response diversity, based on the diversity of species responses to temperature measured in isolation, was a weak predictor of community stability, and relationships differed between disturbances (i.e., heatwave and coldspell). Instead, species traits were consistent predictors of species responses in communities. Small, fast-growing species were more tolerant and benefited from the disturbance, while large, slow-growing species were less tolerant and decreased in proportion - these patterns were consistent across disturbances and community compositions. These results suggest that strong trait-performance relationships might reduce the importance of response diversity for stability. But these findings also show that general species traits, such as size and growth rate, can predict which species, and how, contribute to community responses, providing an empirical basis to relate species traits to stability outcomes under climate change.

7
Environmental tolerance, species interaction, and the link between the fundamental and realized niches: Insights from a hypersaline planktonic system

Guyot, L.; Fereol, S.; Jabbour-Zahab, R.; Chevin, L.-M.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734780 medRxiv
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The impacts of a changing abiotic environment on fitness and performance arise not only from low tolerance to new environmental conditions, but also from changes in the abundance and interaction intensity with other species. The strength of the interaction may itself depend on how well each species performs across environments, but there is a dearth of studies investigating how intrinsic fitness and interaction intensity covary across an abiotic environmental gradient. We addressed this question in a hypersaline consumer-resource system: the microalga Dunaliella spp. grazed by the brine shrimp Artemia franciscana. We exposed four Dunaliella strains to a range of salinities above seawater, with or without brine shrimps, and tracked their population sizes over time and the survival of their predators, to estimate basic parameters of a Lotka-Volterra model. We found that the intrinsic growth rate of algae, the survival rate of predators, and the per-capita predation rate, all varied with salinity and algal strain. Significant interactions between strain and salinity further revealed that these ecological responses to salinity are evolvable. Together with correlations between demographic parameters across salinity, this suggests that predation may influence the evolution of salinity tolerance curves, blurring the line between the fundamental and realized niches.

8
Herbivores and pathogens can modulate plant population responses to future climate conditions

Andrzejak, M.; Knight, T.; Korell, L.

2026-07-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.07.736959 medRxiv
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Climate change is expected to alter plant populations not only through direct environmental shifts but also via changes in biotic interactions, such as with herbivores and pathogens. As plant species are also expected to differ in their responses to both climate and antagonists, plant responses to both factors are expected to be variable and species-specific. To assess whether interactive effects of climate and antagonists on plant population dynamics are common and whether the strength and direction of plant responses vary across species, we conducted a multi-year field experiment that manipulated realistic climate change and experimentally reduced insect herbivores and fungal pathogens. We measured responses of plant vital rates, such as survivorship, growth, and reproduction across six grassland species. Using Integral Projection Models (IPMs) and Life Table Response Experiments (LTREs), we quantified changes in population growth rate across experimental treatments and the contribution of each vital rate to that observed change. Two of the study species declined so drastically over the course of the experiment that demographic quantification of population growth rates was not possible. From the remaining species, Bromus erectus and Plantago lanceolata show significant interactive responses of climate and antagonist reduction on population growth rates. In contrast, Dianthus carthusianorum and Tragopogon orientalis showed limited responses to experimental treatments. Notably, our results indicate that in some species biotic interactions may amplify the effects of climate change: the presence of plant antagonists exacerbates the negative effects of the future climate treatment on plant population dynamics. Our findings highlight the complexity in predicting plant population responses to climate change and provide insights for grassland management under future environmental conditions.

9
Morphological and thermoregulatory responses to urbanization in the European garden spider Araneus diadematus.

De Wolf, K.; Dahirel, M.; Vantieghem, P.; Vanthournout, B.; Soenens, M.; D'Alba, L.; Shawkey, M.; Vermeersch, E.; Lycke, S.; Vandenabeele, P.; Bonte, D.

2026-06-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.11.731659 medRxiv
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Urbanization creates novel environments that can drive phenotypic and behavioural responses, yet how multiple traits respond across spatial scales remains poorly understood. In particular, elevated ambient temperatures via the urban heat island effect may drive morphological and behavioural responses. We investigated body size, abdominal colouration, microhabitat use, behavioural thermoregulation and thermal offset relative to ambient air in the orb-weaving spider Araneus diadematus across rural-urban gradients in northern Belgium. Contrary to predictions from the temperature-size rule, body size increased with urbanization at large spatial scales, whereas size-corrected abdomen area--reflecting body condition and reproductive investment--declined with urbanization, with strongest support at local spatial scales. Abdominal colouration showed no response to urbanization despite evidence for both carotenoid-like pigments and melanin-associated structures. Nevertheless, body size and colouration covaried, with sites containing larger spiders tending to harbour darker individuals, whereas within sites larger individuals were slightly brighter than smaller conspecifics. Thermal responses showed little variation along the urbanization gradient. Retreats were consistently warmer than web hubs, and spiders maintained body temperatures above both their immediate microhabitat and ambient air. Only retreat-associated behavioural thermoregulation showed a weak decline with urbanization at local spatial scales. Our results reveal contrasting trait responses to urbanization across spatial scales and demonstrate that size-colour covariation can persist despite divergent responses of individual traits. These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple traits, their covariation and spatial scale to accurately understand and predict ecological responses of ectotherms to urban environments.

10
Climate change velocity drives rapid evolution of foliar phenology in trailing edge populations

Bayliss, S. L. J.; Ware, I. M.; Schweitzer, J. A.; Bailey, J. K.

2026-04-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.27.719373 medRxiv
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Here we tested the overarching hypothesis that climate change velocity drives rapid evolution in bud break phenology. With field and common garden studies, we used age cohorts within 17 populations of a foundation riparian tree species distributed across multiple strong environmental gradients in the western US. We provide evidence of contemporary evolution, as young trees in trailing-edge populations have evolved to break bud approximately six days earlier than old trees in these same populations. These populations experience greater water stress than populations at the core of the species distribution, and the magnitude of genetic divergence in bud-break phenology is related to the velocity of change in climate water deficit over the last 100 years. This relationship to climate change velocity did not exist in core populations, suggesting that, despite similar rates of change, a threshold of water deficit stress has yet to be surpassed in those regions. Overall, the interactive effects of old trees and trailing edge populations can provide useful insight into centuries of environmental history and each independently represent important benchmarks for understanding the context for contemporary environmental change.

11
Behavioral metabolic suppression confounds thermal performance estimates and climate vulnerability assessments in a marine ectotherm

Edgar, C.; Penfold, H.; Martinez, T.; Wells, C. D.

2026-07-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.13.738316 medRxiv
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O_LIThermal performance curves (TPCs) predict species vulnerability to climate change, but standard respirometry assumes that measured oxygen consumption reflects physiological state. Sessile invertebrates that retract their tentacles and contract under thermal stress violate this assumption, with unmeasured consequences for thermal limit estimates. C_LIO_LIWe tested this behavioral confound in an undescribed cold-water intertidal anemone (Urticina sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic by integrating a negative binomial encounter-rate regression, a maximum entropy species distribution model (both from effort-corrected iNaturalist data), and closed-chamber respirometry across seven temperatures (1-30{degrees}C, 18 individuals, 126 trials). C_LIO_LIThe strongest distributional predictors were cloud cover and coastal urbanization, with a weaker association with winter minimum SST; direct evidence for warm-edge thermal limitation came from the experiment. Anemone expansion state (scored 0-1 from fully closed to fully expanded) was variable and without a clear trend across the coldest treatments but declined above 20{degrees}C before collapsing at the 30{degrees}C treatment, which proved lethal to all individuals. C_LIO_LIStandard TPC models extrapolated the thermal maximum far beyond the lethal bracket ([~]74{degrees}C symmetric Gaussian; 45.9{degrees}C asymmetric). A Bayesian multiplicative model that separated physiology from behavior showed that physiology continued to track temperature while expansion state declined above 20{degrees}C; a fully expanded anemone respired about twice as fast as a fully closed one at the same temperature. The decline in measured respiration is therefore both behavioral and physiological, and disentangling the two requires recording expansion state alongside oxygen consumption. C_LIO_LIBecause a closed anemone cannot feed or exchange gases, the ecologically relevant thermal limit is the temperature at which the animal can no longer maintain its normal expanded posture, not a curve-fitted thermal maximum. That behavioral threshold leaves warm-edge populations within a few degrees of functional thermal failure. C_LIO_LIFuture thermal physiology studies of organisms capable of modulating oxygen consumption through behavior should incorporate quantitative behavioral covariates to separate physiological from behavioral components of the metabolic response. C_LI

12
Scaling temperature-dependent dispersal rates to metacommunity dynamics: An experimental test

Stark, K.; Han, Z.-Y.; Gibert, J. P.; O'Connor, M. I.

2026-05-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.21.727003 medRxiv
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O_LIChanges in community structure under shifting thermal regimes depend on how both local population dynamics and regional dispersal respond to temperature. Processes underlying dispersal, such as movement speed and density dependence, are constrained by temperature-dependent metabolic rates; however, the temperature dependence of population dispersal rate, and effect of this relationship on local and regional diversity patterns, have received little attention in the metabolic scaling literature. C_LIO_LIHere, we propose and experimentally test a framework that relates temperature effects on individual dispersal probability, to thermal performance curves (TPCs) for population dispersal rates, to colonization dynamics in metacommunities. Using multi-patch well plate microcosms, we measured thermal performance curves for dispersal rate in several naturally co-occurring ciliate species, and contrasted species-specific dispersal TPCs at different intra- and inter-specific densities and time scales. C_LIO_LIDispersal rate TPCs in monoculture differed at low versus high population densities, potentially suggesting distinct temperature effects on the density-independent (individual movement probability and speed) and density-dependent (quorum-sensing and resource competition) components of dispersal. C_LIO_LISpecies-specific dispersal rate TPCs in polyculture metacommunities explained differences in colonization dynamics across temperature treatments. Dispersal rate TPCs differed from intrinsic growth rate TPCs, such that better dispersers had higher-than-expected per capita population growth at the regional (whole-metacommunity) scale compared to predictions from standard growth TPCs measured in single-patch monoculture. C_LIO_LITogether, these results suggest that ignoring temperature-dependent dispersal can yield an incomplete understanding of biodiversity change in spatially structured systems exposed to warming. C_LI

13
A general framework explaining variation in plant economics traits with environment and through ontogeny

Falster, D. S.; Towers, I.; Vesk, P.; Westoby, M.

2026-05-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.25.727577 medRxiv
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Plant economics traits, such as leaf mass per unit leaf area (LMA) and stem specific density (SSD), capture diversity among plant species in how common tissues (leaf, wood, root) are constructed. These traits are key descriptors of plant strategy, yet it has proven difficult to explain this variation with theory and process-based models. Here we reveal a general explanation on why these economics traits vary with environment, through ontogeny, and with other plant traits. This explanation relies on three core assumptions: 1) plants seek to maximise growth rate, 2) growth rate can be decomposed into a product, and 3) there is a tradeoff between the efficiency of tissue construction and tissue turnover rate. Formulation of growth as a product is essential, as it causes the optimal value of an economics trait to vary with the plants biomass production rate, which means economics traits will naturally covary with the abiotic environment, the competitive context, and other strategical features of the plant. Finally, we show how a modification of the trait into plastic and non-plastic components alters the magnitude of intra-specific responses, aligning model responses with empirical trends. Broadly, our results help explain how plant form and function for a wide diversity of species is shaped to suit their environment and, moreover, they reveal insight into a general fast-slow spectrum (Reich 2014) with coordinated shifts among organs (leaf & stem) through tradeoffs between efficient tissue construction and turnover.

14
Trait dissimilarity-based tree species loss affects tree diversity effects on herbivory

Mittag, M. T.; Albert, G.; Castro Sanchez-Bermejo, P.; Davrinche, A.; Haider, S.; Li, S.; Liu, X.; Wang, M.-Q.; Schuldt, A.; Petermann, J. S.

2026-05-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.21.726831 medRxiv
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O_LIBiodiversity loss can alter interactions not only through changes in tree species richness, but also through the loss of particular functional strategies from ecological communities. Working in a subtropical forest diversity experiment we asked whether tree species richness effects on arthropod herbivory and leaf pathogen infestation depend on community functional diversity, and whether trait dissimilarity-based, non-random species loss alters these relationships compared to random loss. To address this, we combined already established planted scenarios with newly constructed extinction pathways. C_LIO_LIWe tested the responses of herbivory and leaf pathogen infestation (i) to tree species richness, functional diversity (Raos Q), community structure and resource strategies (i.e. ever-greenness) and community-weighted trait means as well as predation, and (ii) trait dissimilarity-based extinction pathway analyses that contrasted directed loss of functionally similar versus functionally distinct tree species. C_LIO_LIHerbivory increased with tree species richness and this increase was significantly stronger in communities with higher tree functional diversity. Under directed species loss scenarios, herbivory differed most strongly from random-loss expectations when similar tree species were lost first. By contrast, losing functionally distinct species first produced richness effects that were much closer to the random-loss scenarios. Trait-based species loss will therefore modify trophic interactions more strongly than random loss. For pathogen infestation tree richness effects depended on evergreenness and among planted extinction scenarios (three-way interaction), with only minor deviations of trait-based extinction path-ways from random-loss expectations. Pathogen infestation also tended to increase with community-weighted mean leaf nitrogen. Predation showed no clear relationship with tree species richness or functional diversity but was positively associated with herbivory. The strength of this association differed among extinction scenarios, providing no evidence for consistent top-down regulation. C_LI SynthesisThe ecological consequences of biodiversity loss for leaf damage depend on which functional strategies are lost, not only on how many tree species remain. By integrating ob-served tree diversity gradients with trait-based extinction pathways, this study shows that functional diversity and host redundancy help explain why herbivores and pathogens are shaped by the same changes in tree diversity through different functional constraints and im-prove predictions of interaction strength under non-random species loss.

15
A demographic framework for assessing population vulnerability to contrasting perturbation regimes

Gimenez-Romero, A.; Oro, D.; Doak, D. F.; Garcia, M. B.; Genovart, M.

2026-05-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.22.727074 medRxiv
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Environmental change affects demographic rates through perturbations that differ in magnitude, duration, and frequency, yet their consequences for population vulnerability, i.e., potential population reduction, remain only partly understood. Here, we develop a general demographic framework that unifies pulse and press perturbations to better understand how life-history strategy shapes population declines across the fast-slow continuum. Using matrix population models for 12 plant and animal species with diverse generation time and life history strategies, we simulated perturbations acting independently on adult survival, juvenile survival, and fecundity, and measured their demographic consequences over comparable life-history timescales. We then integrated impacts across perturbation regimes to derive a novel comparative vulnerability metric and related this metric to species life-history descriptors. Across taxa, perturbations to adult survival consistently produced the strongest demographic impacts, with vulnerability increasing markedly towards slower life histories. Juvenile survival emerged as the main axis of demographic differentiation among species, whereas the effects of perturbations on fecundity were weaker and comparatively homogeneous across the continuum. Generation time strongly predicted vulnerability to survival perturbations, but not to reproductive output. Consistent with previous theoretical and empirical work, our results show that vulnerability is not a fixed species property, but an emergent outcome of the interaction between the perturbed vital rate, the temporal structure of environmental forcing, and the underlying life-history strategy. Importantly, as the vulnerability metric can be compared both across populations under a given perturbation regime and within populations across perturbation types and demographic targets, the framework also provides a basis for stage-specific and regime-specific management.

16
Primary productivity declines when species composition and climate are mismatched

Stemkovski, M.; Clark-Wolf, K.; Dee, L. E.; Dobson, K. C.; Felton, A. J.; Goncalves-Souza, T.; Hooker, G.; Hooten, M.; Johnson, L. C.; Morales, M.; Osborne, B. B.; Pinsky, M. L.; Reich, P. B.; Rollinson, C. E.; Song, Y.; Ward, N. K.; Zhu, K.; Adler, P. B.

2026-05-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.20.726661 medRxiv
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Climate change drives shifts in species composition, but turnover in many communities lags behind the current pace of change. Anticipating the impact of the resulting community-climate disequilibria on ecosystem functioning is critical. Present-day communities may already be out of equilibrium with climate, providing an opportunity to estimate the effects of disequilibrium before they become more widespread. We analyzed plant community composition and function data from [~]60,000 rangeland monitoring sites across the western US to measure how community-climate disequilibrium contributes to spatial and temporal variation in net primary productivity (NPP) - a key ecosystem function. We found that communities were already substantially out of equilibrium with climate and accounting for this disequilibrium helped explain patterns of NPP. Communities farthest from equilibrium were less productive than those that were closely matched with climate. Our findings suggest that future increases in community-climate disequilibrium may further impair ecosystem functioning.

17
Demographic trade-offs decouple pollination services from plant population growth

Iler, A. M.; CaraDonna, P. J.; Petry, W. K.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.20.726591 medRxiv
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Most plants require animal pollination to reproduce, prompting concern that pollinator declines immediately threaten plant populations. This concern is warranted if pollinator-mediated seed losses cause declines in plant population growth rates ({lambda}). However, demographic trade-offs might reduce the risk of population decline if seed loss improves performance elsewhere in the life cycle. We conducted a multi-year pollination manipulation on four species and measured how demographic vital rates and {lambda} responded. Seed responses did not predict net changes in {lambda}. Reduced pollination decreased seed production, but only caused a net decrease in {lambda} in one species; in the others, improved survival buffered {lambda}. Increased pollination boosted seed production, but at a cost to survival that caused a net reduction in {lambda} in three species. Our results highlight the importance of demographic trade-offs for understanding the impacts of pollinator declines on plant biodiversity and, more broadly, the population-level impacts of changing mutualisms.

18
Recent and high grazing pressure limit cork oak seedling resprouting and survival

Wadud, A. I.; Craveiro, J.; Erroi, S.; Alcobia, S.; Branco, M.; Bugalho, M. N.; Vaz, P. G.

2026-05-06 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.20.689419 medRxiv
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Regeneration failure is a bottleneck in Mediterranean oak woodlands. Cattle can hinder or promote recruitment, depending on grazing location, timing and intensity. Herbivory theory predicts that repeated defoliation and trampling deplete seedling reserves, whereas resprouting can extend survival; yet field studies rarely separate intensity from recency or combine long-run grazing records with individual fates and microhabitat/climate context. We test how management-driven heterogeneity shapes cork oak seedling survival and resprouting by combining 12 years of paddock-level grazing records with individual tracking of 8431 seedlings across 24 paddocks. Bayesian mixed-effects survival models related seedling lifespan to grazing history x pressure (moderate [≤]150; high >150 LSU ha-1 days yr-1) and to key covariates, including seedling height, resprouting status, shrub distance, cattle dung counts (as a proxy of very recent grazing), and 1-month SPEI (as recent water balance). Bayesianlogistic mixed models were then used to relate resprouting probability to grazing treatments. Survival was lower in grazed than ungrazed paddocks and declined along management gradients: median lifespan fell from 460 (moderate grazing) to 256 days (high), and from 460 (old grazing; two-year absence) to 199 days (recent). A two-year cattle absence increased survival under moderate pressure but was insufficient where pressure was high, indicating legacy effects and that recovery windows must scale with pressure. Resprouting dominated persistence: resprouters lived >5x longer than non-resprouters (2351 vs 460 days). Taller seedlings lived longer, and shrub proximity conferred a modest benefit. Climate modulated outcomes: wetter recent periods (higher SPEI) markedly boosted survival. Cattle reduced the odds of resprouting, with the strongest penalty under recent use. By disentangling grazing intensity from recency and linking both to seedling survival and resprouting, we show why recruitment falters under continuous, heavy grazing and when it can recover. Because drought intensifies cattle impacts, managers should combine moderate stocking rates with multi-year rest periods to rebuild oak bud banks and below-ground reserves; a two-year hiatus can help under moderate pressure but appears insufficient where pressure is high. Aligning rotational plans with drought outlooks and tracking simple field cues (seedling height, recent resprouting) offers a practical path to reconcile production with regeneration in Mediterranean wood-pastures. HighlightsO_LITwelve years of grazing records linked to 8431 cork oak seedling fates C_LIO_LIRecent grazing reduced survival and resprouting versus a two-year cattle absence C_LIO_LIHigh grazing shortened lifespan; two-year rest helped only under moderate pressure C_LIO_LIResprouting was the strongest survival correlate; resprouters lived over 5x longer C_LIO_LIWetter short-term water balance increased cork oak seedling longevity C_LI

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Urbanization effects are trait-specific and city-dependent across a widespread spider's global range

Vanthournout, B.; Dahirel, M.; Chuang, A.; De Wolf, K.; D'haenekint, N.; Abihssira-Garcia, I. S.; Alicea-Serrano, A. M.; Andersen, M.; Anderson, H.; Aviles, L.; Barnett, J. B.; Ba?ar?r, E.; Beatman, T. R.; Bechsgaard, J.; Bilde, T.; Biundo, C. E.; Boles, J. C.; Brandt, E. E.; Chakraborty, S.; Coonfield, A.; Croci, S.; Cuff, J. P.; Driesen, M.; Echeverri, S.; Engeseth, K. R.; Escalante, I.; Esposito, L. A.; Fischer, A.; Foley, S.; Frutiger, M. J.; Gartly, R.; Garzoli, L.; Gorneau, J.; Grieves, L.; Guevara, J.; Haberkern, A.; Haddad, C.; Hanslin, F.; Hesselberg, T.; Hirschkorn, C.; Hung, E.; Isa

2026-06-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.19.733406 medRxiv
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Urban environments impose strong selective pressures through biotic and abiotic factors, driving changes in behavior, physiology, and morphology. Yet, responses vary across taxa and cities, and it remains unclear which traits respond consistently and what factors moderate this variation. We addressed these questions using the widespread European garden spider (Araneus diadematus) as a model, measuring size, color, and web-building traits along urban-rural transects in 22 cities across its distribution range. Using a meta-analytic framework, we assessed how city-specific characteristics influenced trait variation. Urbanization consistently reduced relative abdomen surface area, a proxy for body condition. Exploratory meta-regressions suggest that web-building response was predicted by temperature: compared to their non-urban surroundings, urban webs are larger in colder regions and smaller in warmer regions. In contrast, body size and abdomen brightness varied among cities without clear environmental predictors. These findings show that urbanization effects are trait- and context-dependent, likely influenced by local factors such as heat island intensity, microclimate, or prey availability. Linking within- and between-city variation will improve understanding of species phenotypic responses to urban environments.

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Species-specific drivers of genetic diversity are decoupled from plant community diversity

Abdelwahed, L.; Favre-Bac, L.; Rahnamae, N.; Way, F.; Poulain, N.; Ali, T.; Eskelinen, A.; Till-Bottraud, I.; de Meaux, J.

2026-06-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.25.734591 medRxiv
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Understanding how habitat connectivity shapes biodiversity remains a major ecological challenge. In particular, the roles of connectivity and ecological heterogeneity on co-variation in plant species diversity and intraspecific genetic diversity is not understood. We combined species distribution modelling, resistance-to-movement mapping, landscape connectivity analysis and population genomics to investigate diversity patterns in three wet meadow herbs, Scorzonera humilis, Oenanthe peucedanifolia and Lychnis flos-cuculi, and their surrounding plant communities. Genetic diversity patterns differed strongly among co-occurring species. Connectivity metrics explained genetic diversity only in O. peucedanifolia, and environmental drivers of genetic diversity were highly species specific. Importantly, genetic diversity changed with the presence of some species in the community, but it was consistently unrelated to indicators of local plant community diversity. Overall, the processes shaping within-species biodiversity may differ fundamentally from those structuring habitat connectivity and plant species communities, with important implications for conservation.